Sabah: the battleground for the Umno Deputy Presidency (part 1)

Raja Petra Kamarudin

It is said: the Battle of Britain was won on the playing fields of Eton. But that is what the English say. Malays have another saying. And that is: the Battle of Umno is won in the State of Sabah.

Since we are in the mood for clichés, might as well I ramble on with some others.

It is said: those who forget history are doomed to repeat its mistakes. Well, on the flip side of the coin, those who remember history can also ape its successes.

And Sabah is one case in point where history has taught us that one man’s loss was another man’s gain.

When Anwar Ibrahim took on the then Umno Deputy President and Deputy Prime Minister, Tun Ghafar Baba, he chose Sabah as his battleground. If he could defeat Ghafar in Sabah then he could take him on throughout the rest of Malaysia. Anwar did not even have to do that. Once Ghafar saw he had lost Sabah he backed off, allowing Anwar to win the post uncontested. To attempt any defence against Anwar’s onslaught would have been futile. Once Sabah is gone he might as well retire and make way for Anwar.

That is how important Sabah is to whosoever aspires to be the top dog in Umno.

As they say: (yet another cliché) there’s no point in trying to re-invent the wheel. Sabah is a proven formula. So, Sabah must be the battleground for anyone who wishes to take, or retain, the number two slot in Umno -- and the number two will be the one who traditionally goes on to become the top dog in Umno as well as Malaysia’s Prime Minister (and the phrase ‘top dog’ is not used as any mark of disrespect here). And I say ‘traditionally’ because this is not a party rule cast in stone.

Traditionally, whether you eventually do become number one or not would all depend on whether you can sustain the number two slot. Anwar Ibrahim did not. Neither did Ghafar before him. And Musa Hitam before that too suffered the same fate. They all retired as number two and never made number one. Of course, if Tun Dr Ismail had not died prematurely things may have worked out very differently, especially since Tun Razak died in office. But Tun Dr Ismail died ahead of Tun Razak so everyone’s fortunes changed along the way and the end result was Malaysia ended up with Dr Mahathir Mohamad as Prime Minister for 22 long and dreary years...sigh...

Okay, back to Sabah, what has Sabah got to do with all this? Simple, the Battle of Sabah has already begun. It in fact started awhile back as soon as Abdullah Ahmad Badawi took over as Prime Minister and Najib Tun Razak as Deputy Prime Minister soon after that.

The multi-billion Ringgit question is: how long will Abdullah stay on as Prime Minister and will Najib take over once he retires (or is forced into retirement -- which is a scenario that cannot be discounted taking into consideration his dismal performance as Prime Minister thus far)?

Not even Abdullah knows how long he will stay on as Prime Minister. It could be another five years. It could be ten years. There are many factors that would decide this and Abdullah may have no say in the matter. And there is no guarantee either that Najib would be taking over once Abdullah finally moves aside, whenever that may be.

I have said this before and I will say it again: 24 hours is a long time in politics. Anwar Ibrahim got reduced from being Dr Mahathir’s anointed successor (as confirmed by Dr Mahathir himself in Penang in late August 1998) to being ‘unemployed’ (on 2 September 1998) in a matter of days. If your political fortunes can change drastically in less than a week, what more if you need to linger for five or ten years? Much can happen in five or ten years to change the course of history. The 13 May 1969 race riots, Tun Dr Ismail’s and Tun Razak’s deaths, Umno’s entry into Sabah, the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, and so on, all had a bearing on who eventually went on to become Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister or Prime Minister.

It is no secret that Abdullah’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, wants to be the next Prime Minister after his father-in-law -- and he wants this to happen by the time he is 40.

That is slightly over ten years from now.

So he needs Abdullah to stay on for at least another ten years. If, for any reason, Abdullah has to retire, then Khairy’s fortunes would change. His chances of becoming the next Prime Minister are tied to Abdullah’s chances of staying on for another ten years or so. And, within the next ten years, Khairy needs to wangle himself into the number two slot in Umno -- meaning, he would then be the Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia.

But this is easier said than done. Currently, the number two is Najib. And Najib too wants to be the next Prime Minister (and so would I if I was currently the number two) so he is not about to roll over and play dead. If Khairy wants Najib’s job he would have to fight for it. And Najib would certainly give Khairy a run for his money.

Khairy has given himself ten years. This is what he told his close circle of friends who, understandably, are all excited over the prospect. He will go for broke these next ten years. If he makes it, well and fine, he will become Malaysia’s Sixth Prime Minister some time after 2015 (or maybe seventh if there is an ‘interim’ Prime Minister a la Goh Chok Tong of Singapore in the form of Anwar Ibrahim). If he does not, he will then move on and maybe build a new life for himself overseas. Either way Khairy has nothing to lose.

Khairy’s first task would be to dislodge Najib from the number two slot. The acid test would be the Sabah Chief Minister’s post. Khairy is backing the Chief Minister, Musa Aman, who is also the Ketua Penaja Umno Bahagian Libaran. Najib, on the other hand, is backing Mohd Shafie Haji Apdal, the Ketua Penaja Umno Bahagian Semporna and Federal Minister of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs.

If Najib can engineer the ousting of Musa and can successfully place his man on the throne, then his hold over Sabah would be secure, just like Anwar before this. However, if Musa gets to stay on as Chief Minister, then Najib would find Sabah tough going, just like what Ghafar experienced. And, as mentioned earlier, whosoever wins Sabah would have the better chance of making it to, or retaining, the number two slot in Umno.

Khairy is definitely going all out to ensure Najib’s man does not make it and that Musa stays. And Musa, because of the many ‘cases’ hanging over his head, would have to ensure he is in Khairy’s good books lest he gets inserted into the list of 18 ‘high profile’ corruption cases sitting on Abdullah’s table.

So let’s watch Sabah these next couple of months. What happens in Sabah would be a good indicator of how the fight for the number two slot in Umno is developing. If Musa is retained as Chief Minister, then Khairy would be in a very strong position to take on Najib. However, if Musa falls, then Khairy would be weakened, especially if his successor is a Najib man.

In part two of this piece we shall talk about how the battle-lines are drawn between those opposed and those in support of Musa Aman.