Dr Dzulkifli Ahmad
Director, PAS Research Centre

Just as the premier is on his upbeat mood to be contemplating on the date for the next General Election (GE), he is rudely reminded that the worst is far from over. His current woes on the economy are nowhere near comfort zone. Worse still, he is now confronted with even more agonising and unending revelation of corruption in his government.

His excitement over the economy took a blow when his economic spin-doctors pathetic attempt to massage the statistics of the so-called trillion ringgit total trade, increased foreign reserves, strengthening ringgit and increased foreign direct investment (FDI) were challenged. The FDI numbers were contradicted by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report. The International Trade and Industry Minister earlier announced that the FDI had surged to a record high in 2006, noting that ‘approved’ FDI for the manufacturing sector was at a record RM 20.2 billion (US$5.7 billion).

In UNCTAD Investment Brief (Number 1, 2007), Malaysia’s FDI (actual inflow of approved) for 2006 was estimated around US$3.9 as compared to US$4.0 in 2005 and US$4.6 in 2004. Rafidah’s claim that Malaysia continues to be an attractive manufacturing and export base doesn’t reflect the actual situation. The same report quoted Thailand as having attracted USD$7.9 billion, while India and Singapore enticed USD$9.5 billion and USD$31.9 billion respectively. For the record, Asia is still the top target for FDIs in the developing world, attracting a total US$230 billion. For all our much hyped ‘competitiveness’, we actually had a meagre 1.7% of the total FDI for Asia.

The premier’s bullishness over the performance of the Bursa Malaysia was also short-lived. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) went into a tailspin from 1,272.87 on the 27th February to 1,164.68 on 2nd March, wiping out a whooping RM97.58 billion in market capitalisation. Thanks to the premier’s ‘unsolicited investment advice’, he had predicted that the KLCI could surpass the 1,350-point by year end. Lured by the premier’s novice advice, many small investors actually got badly burnt.

Ironically though, many could recall that it was none other than the boss of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) who went as far as instigating the premier to call for the dissolution of the parliament. He alleged that the economy is at its best.

Since when was the head of the MIER a jointly appointed ‘political analyst’? His audacious attempt in ‘political prophecy’ is surely to be marvelled. Quite oblivious of its impact, he had actually committed a great disservice to his political master by letting known the gruelling economic scenarios to come.

The writer’s perusal of current literature has it that the US economic recession is probable by this year end as predicted by Allan Span (former US Federal Reserve). China is talking about curbing its overheated stock market. Investors, especially hedge fund managers, may embark on unwinding their yen ‘carry trade’ as Japan may decide to end their zero-rate policy amounting to US$1 trillion. This could adversely affect the global financial markets (carry trade - buying in Japan’s yen because of their zero interest rate and investing in other currencies and higher yielding assets and earning through it spread). These are scary scenarios for a pending global threat that may have a negative impact on the Malaysian economy. Bleak though it may seem for the time being, waiting much longer doesn’t help the premier either.

As if all these weren’t sufficient to shake his confidence for a ‘fengshui’ date for the next General Election, he was further slapped with the latest allegations against his Number One or the Director-General of the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA), Datuk Seri Zulkipli Mat Noor, on accounts of corruption and sexual crimes.

His party and administration are under very serious pressure as a result of the many abuses and corrupt practices. But this one is doubtless, simply the most menacing and catastrophic to the integrity of his entire government. No amount of ‘spin’ or damage control from Johan Jafaar’s ‘Debat Perdana’ on ‘Integrity’ could cushion the damage. The ACA is the watchdog and the icon of integrity, the primary institution charged with combating corruption in the public sector.

Thanks to the good work of the Movement for Democracy and Anti-Corruption (Gerak) that had exposed the report penned by former Sabah ACA’s chief, Mohamad Ramli Manan last year. Gerak’s Chairman, Ezam Mohd Noor, insisted on the establishment of an independent committee to probe the allegations. Both the president of the Bar Council and the president of the Transparency International (TI) Malaysia, however, opined that the police should be allowed to carry out a full investigation first.

The writer having met the complainant, Mohamad Ramli Manan, believes that there are merits to Ezam’s suggestion. Letters to the then IGP as well as to the AG’s Chambers were of no avail. What is puzzling, police findings in 1997, where Zulkipli claimed that he was cleared of the charges, were not revealed to the public. The IGP has now confirmed that the papers on the sexual crime and assault allegations have been resubmitted to the AG’s Chambers for further action.

Be that as it may, like the judiciary, the ACA is deserving of leadership of impeccable reputation. While not wanting to be prejudicial to ex-police officers, it would be pertinent to have personalities from established academics, top civil servants or the jurists. Ideally, the ACA must be directly placed under the parliament as the PAC Chairman has suggested.

Just as the premier thought he could sit back, he is struck by another allegation of corrupt practice against his Internal Security Deputy Minister, Datuk Mohd Johari Baharum who has been alleged to have accepted more than RM5.5 million in bribes to assist in freeing several suspects detained under the Emergency Ordinance.

At this juncture, it dawns upon me that all these ‘revelations’ might very well be my ‘blind spot’. For all the ‘predicaments’ apparently tormenting the premier, it’s nonetheless the work of his ‘spin doctors’ to betray the premier’s earnestness and resolute stance against corruption. Some may have to fall on their own swords - the sacrificial lamb of sorts.

He fought the election wanting the electorates to support him on the agenda of ‘war against corruption’ and Islam Hadhari. They relented and gave him a thumping victory. After three years, he now could neither show-case his success on Islam or brag of his efforts against corruption. His lackadaisical attitude in combating corruption is amply testified by the fact that the National Integrity Plan and its Institute were launched in April 2004. After all the rhetoric, nothing got done. It’s now March 2007!

Given the last leg of his term, he is desperate to vindicate his claims, deliver his promises and placate his critiques. But then, what about the 18 high-profile cases exposed by Dr Rais Yatim at the start of his premiership?

What about the RM540 million paid to a third party in the procurement of the RM4.1 billion submarines?

What about the long list of rent-seeking or crony practices bordering abuses nay downright corruption that privileged a few Umnoputras?

What about the excesses of purchasing the new airbus jetliner for RM200 million when the overburdened rakyat were denied of the RM104 million for the textbook loan for their children and all?

What about the inflation in literally everything that matters most to the rakyat as a result of reckless policies in increasing petrol and diesel prices? What about the tariff hikes in utilities and the toll?

What about….what about…what about? The list goes on.

Will the rakyat and voters be forgiving in the next General Election? I rest my case.