Sabah: keADILan’s frontline state?

Raja Petra Kamarudin

In the 1986 general election, the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) was almost wiped out when it won only one parliament seat. Ironically, that general election also saw the Democratic Action Party’s (DAP) best performance ever when it won 24 parliament seats and was practically the only opposition in Malaysia.Why did DAP do so well when PAS did so badly? Well, 1985 saw ‘Black Monday’, the worldwide stock market collapse, and many in Malaysia, in particular the Chinese, were losing their pants. The Chinese voters are never happy when their pockets are hit and they would be very amicable to changing the government if the economy takes a turn for the worse. That is why, just before every general election, the government will inject cash flow into the economy to give the impression that all is honky dory and there is no need to change the government.

This, somehow, seems to fool the Chinese every time in spite of their so-called economic prowess and I just cannot understand why. (You actually can fool all the people all the time when it comes to money). Then, immediately after the election, the government spending stops and the economy goes back into the doldrums. (Just look at the 2004 general election and what has happened to the economy since then). Hah, gotcha!Anyway, in 1986, the Chinese demonstrated their displeasure by giving 24 seats to the DAP and since then the ruling party never makes the same mistake of holding an election during an economic recession. And if they are ever forced to do so, then they will first throw some money around to create the impression that Malaysia is experiencing a boom.We must remember though, it was only the Chinese who deserted the ruling party. The Malays still stood by Umno resulting in Barisan Nasional sweeping 84% of the 177 seats in Parliament (and PAS getting demolished).

Only four years later however, in 1990, this scenario changed. Umno, which had the undivided support and loyalty of the Malays just an election ago, lost Kelantan to the opposition. DAP saw its seats in Parliament slide to 20. But because of the success of the ‘Malay’ opposition in capturing Kelantan, the ruling coalition, which earlier controlled 84% of the seats in Parliament, was reduced to 70%. And the ruling party’s share of the popular vote dropped to 53% from 61% the election before that.What happened? PAS, which just an election before that was about to pack its bags, suddenly rebounded and actually captured a whole state? How did it become so strong again in just one election?Actually PAS did not become strong. It was still the same old PAS with maybe a slight change at the top. But Umno, in those four years between 1986 and 1990, had become weak. In fact, it had split into two with the creation of Semangat 46. And Semangat 46 allied itself with PAS to give Umno Kelantan a drubbing.Just before the 1990 general election, Daim Zainuddin, the then Finance Minister, had gone to Kelantan to meet its Chief Minister, Mohd Yaacob, to advise him to retire. Daim told Mat Yaacob that if he were to lead Umno Kelantan in the election that year, then Kelantan would fall. But Mat Yaacob was stubborn. He wanted one last term. He wanted his Last Tango in Paris.

That was the end of Kelantan. The voters were just so fed up with Umno while Umno Kelantan itself was so badly split into maybe four, five or six -- actually we never really knew into how many because there were just too many warlords and demigods that it was almost like a free-for-all; Mat Yaacob, Annuar Musa, Hussein Ahmad, Hashim Safin, Kamaruddin Mohd Nor, Ku Din, Stapa, and many more. Everyone was trying to kill off the other. In the end, all died and the opposition swept the state.

In short, Umno was weak and the ‘internal factor’ -- the split of Umno after the Team A vs. Team B episode -- determined the outcome of the Kelantan election. (Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, the Team B leader, is Kelantanese, so Kelantan invariably suffered the brunt of Umno Kelantan’s outrage).

In 1999, the same scenario cropped up in Terengganu. The voters were fed up and Umno Terengganu was suffering the 1990 Umno Kelantan disease -- it too was split into many factions; Idris Jusoh, Yusoff Nor, Bakar Daud, Wan Mokhtar, Zubir Embong, Roslan Awang Chik, Wan Hisham, Wan Bakri, Rahman Bakar, and many more, in particular those dropped from the list of candidates.

Again there was another ‘internal factor’ at play here. The Terengganu Chief Minister, Wan Mokhtar Ahmad, was advised to retire just like Mohd Yaacob in Kelantan had been advised to nine years before that in 1990. But Wan Mokhtar, just like his Kelantan counterpart nine years before that, wanted a Last Tango as well. So Terengganu, just like Kelantan in 1990, fell to the opposition in 1999. (Wan Mokhtar slipped and fell when he went to file his nomination papers in Kemaman -- bad Feng Shui).

From the Kelantan experience in 1990 and Terengganu in 1999, it has been proven that a weak and split Umno, a stubborn Chief Minister who insists on one last round, a discontented electorate, and a very strong ‘internal factor’, are the right ingredients for the state to fall to the opposition. Okay, so it was Kelantan in 1990 and Terengganu in 1999. Are there any other states today in this same predicament which may travel the same route as Kelantan and Terengganu come next election (which could be as early as the third quarter of next year)?

Yes, there is, and this state is Sabah.Umno Sabah is in a bad state of affairs. Musa Aman, the Umno Sabah head and the state’s Chief Minister, has no control over the 25 Umno divisions there. There is not one Umno Sabah but an Umno Sabah comprising of many warlords -- Hajiji Mohd Noor, Mohd Shafie Apdal, Osu Sukam, Lakim Ukin, Pandikar Amin Mulia, Ghapur Salleh, Masidi Manjun, Sairin Karno, Bung Moktar Radin, Faisal Daeigo, Masrani Parman, Uzair Yahya, and many more -- and all want Musa Aman dead. Even those like Rahim Ismail who used to sing Musa Aman’s praises are now bitterly opposed to him. Musa Aman must be feeling like Caesar seconds before the knives sank into his body. And there are more Brutuses surrounding Musa Aman than Caesar.

But who amongst the opposition should spearhead the attack on Sabah? There are not too many opposition parties in Malaysia. DAP is already focusing on the neighbouring state of Sarawak where it is targeting 14 of the 71 state seats. Then it has Penang, Perak, Selangor and Melaka to worry about. Anyway, DAP has no ambitions to take over any state. It just wants to offer Malaysians a strong opposition. Nevertheless, an opposition is still an opposition, however strong it may be, and it can never be the government (just a pain in the neck for the government).PAS, on the other hand, is focusing on Malay-majority states and constituencies. Therefore it would do best in states like Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis where 95% or more of the electorate is Malay. Once the Malay majority drops below 80% PAS might as well not waste its time there.

So that leaves only Parti Keadilan Rakyat (keADILan). And keADILan at the moment seems the best bet for Sabah. Its advisor, Anwar Ibrahim, is not only well-known but also well-respected in Sabah. Even the Umno Sabah leaders look up to him and many have had meetings with him to indicate their willingness to leave Umno if Anwar just gives the word to do so.

But it is still too early for that. The Umno Sabah leaders need to stay put and continue being a thorn in Musa Aman’s side, for an enemy in the blanket is worth 1,000 soldiers in the battlefield. When the time is ripe, and that would be when keADILan makes some progress in the state, then it would be time for the crossovers.

It must be remembered that changing parties is very normal in Sabah politics and is not frowned upon. Party loyalty is second to the cause. In this case, the ‘cause’ for Sabahans is regional or state interests as opposed to national interests. Umno Sabah is seen as a national or West Malaysian party and a party that is ‘colonising’ the state. On the other hand, keADILan, though still a national party, is seen very much as 'local'.

One case in point would be the Deputy Chairperson of keADILan Sabah, Christina Liew. Christina decides what goes and makes her own decisions very much independent of the centre. Some may even call her a ‘loose cannon’, but Sabahans love loose cannons, not puppets of the federal government like Musa Aman, who needs to do the bidding of his masters in Kuala Lumpur.

The more Christina ‘breaks away’ from Kuala Lumpur, the more Sabahans would love keADILan. Maybe she should ‘bang table’ with keADILan’s national leaders and demand that keADILan Sabah decides what is best for keADILan Sabah. That way Sabahans would stand behind her.

The fact that Christina is Christian-Chinese helps as well. Then it would not be a Malay-Muslim who dictates what goes. Sure, many Sabahans may be Muslims, but the Muslims in Sabah are not like the Muslims of West Malaysia, and even further than the Muslims of Kelantan or Terengganu. Islam in Sabah is just a religion and not a way of life, like for West Malaysian Muslims. Therefore Islam is never a factor, especially when it comes to politics. You can have one family comprising of many religions and it is not odd for Muslims to marry non-Muslims, something you can hardly find in West Malaysia.To Sabahans, keADILan is the ideal party. Its structure goes down well with the Sabah mentality. What keADILan stands for is also what holds dear to the hearts of most Sabahans. More state rights and less domination of state affairs by the federal government, mother tongue education, more vernacular schools, maintaining Malaysia as a secular state, a new and fairer economic policy to replace the New Economic Policy (NEP), and so on are exactly what Sabahans are crying for. And Umno Sabah cannot give them this for Umno Sabah is an extension of Umno Malaysia, a party that upholds Ketuanan Melayu or Malay Dominance. And Sabahans are not necessarily Malays though many may be Bumiputeras. And many are not Muslims as well -- or, if they are, then they are liberal Muslims.Yes, Sabah is ripe for an opposition takeover. Even the kingpins and warlords of Umno Sabah think so. And the fact that it is Anwar Ibrahim leading the charge makes it even more appealing to Sabahans.

Today, 11 January 2006, Anwar is making a two-day visit to Sabah to meet the various non-Malay association and community leaders. In these meetings Anwar will be briefing them on keADILan’s proposed new economic policy that will replace the NEP. Anwar will be tabling his blueprint on how the different communities will share Malaysia’s economic pie based on deserving cases and not based on cronyism. What Anwar has to offer, which will be much more than just an equitable distribution of wealth, will be music to Sabahan’s ears.

Musa Aman is not sleeping soundly nowadays (he has asked his officers to block Anwar’s programmes by cancelling bookings of the various halls that Anwar is supposed to speak in). Musa Aman knows that Sabahans are fed up of the many and blatant excesses and abuses perpetuated by his government and they want change (what has been revealed in Malaysia Today is only the tip of the iceberg). He knows that Sabahans are not frightened of change and, having the same attitude as the Kelantanese, are prepared to do what the Kelantanese have done -- meaning, kick the federal government out (which means therefore kicking Umno out). Sabahans have done this before, many times, and they can do it again if they want to.The problem of course is not Sabah. Sabah is already in the ‘ideal’ situation. The problem is Anwar and keADILan. Can Anwar convince Sabahans that keADILan would be that suitable vehicle to bring about this much sought-after change? And can Anwar finance the RM100 million or RM200 million required to ensure victory in Sabah?

Yes, Anwar will have to do some hard selling these next two days. He will have to put on his best sales pitch and convince Sabahans that keADILan is what they have been waiting for all along -- as the Malays are fond of saying: give a pillow to a sleepy person so that he can sleep soundly. Sabahans are sleepy. But is keADILan that pillow that they need?Over to you Anwar! And may you succeed in selling keADILan to Sabahans. And may Sabah be to keADILan what Kelantan is to PAS and Penang to Gerakan.